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Resting One's Case

December 5, 2008 @ 19:50

COMPAS POLL/SURVEY - December 5, 2008

Canadians Call for New Election; Harper Would Win Big Majority, Sweep Seat-Rich Ontario and Overtake Liberals in Quebec

Canadians Call for an Election

Below are highlights from a new Canada-wide, COMPAS Research poll on the recent turmoil in the House of Commons. Permission is granted to publish or broadcast results provided COMPAS Inc. is appropriately cited.
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By a more than 2:1 margin, Canadians call for another election if the choice faced by the Governor-General were between inviting Stephane Dion to form a government and hold a fresh general election weeks after the most recent one. That is the key finding from a national representative poll completed December 4, 2008.
If an election were held today, Stephen Harper would win a large majority based on nation-wide support of 51% compared to 20% for the Liberals, 10% for the NDP, 6% for the Greens, and 8% for the Bloc. Harper would sweep seat-rich Ontario with 53% of the vote compared to 24% for the Liberals and 10% for the NDP in that province and would surpass Dion in Quebec with 32% of the vote compared to 19% for the Liberals and 35% for the Bloc.

Key factors in this lightening speed transformation of public opinion:

66% of Canadians oppose the Bloc Quebecois having a say in who forms the government;

48% have confidence in Stephen Harper as Prime Minister in the current economic climate compared to 14% for Michael Ignatieff in second place, 11% for NDP leader Jack Layton, 8% for Stephane Dion, 4% for Bob Rae, and 3% for Gilles Duceppe;

58% believe that the Coalition's real or main motivation was a power grab while 28% perceive the Opposition as honestly believing that Harper is a poor manager of the economy;

61% believe that the Liberals, following their drop in support in the October election, should not be trying to form a government.

Category: Politics

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38 Responses to "Resting One's Case"


Toronto Mike
December 5, 2008 / 20:16

May I just be the first to call bullshit on this story.

For goodness sake, Compas couldn't even spell lightning right in their so-called news release.

"Sweep Seat-Rich Ontario" - please. If you believe Harper's party would sweep the many Toronto seats if an election were held today, or even win one, I've got some swamp land in FLA to sell ya.

Any indication of the sample size? I didn't think so...


Freddie P.
December 5, 2008 / 20:26

Yea, and I guess the Ipsos Reid Poll was wrong too.


Pauly Walnuts
December 5, 2008 / 21:00

I know how mike feels. It pisses me off when the polls don't go my way.


Toronto Mike
December 5, 2008 / 21:17

Compas gives polls a very bad rep. They've been doing this kind of thing forever, making grandiose claims from minimal data - always squewed to favour the conservatives.

If there was an election next week, I'd bet you $50 not a single seat in the 416 would go to Harper's party.


Mikey
December 5, 2008 / 22:45

Yea, a poll by a company who's CEO has written for the Fraser Institute, totally unbiased.

Come on Freddie, don't you have any facts? Or do you truly aspire to be Rush Limbaugh?


Speaking for Freddie
December 5, 2008 / 22:54

Yea, I guess the Ipsos Reid Poll was wrong too.


Mikey
December 5, 2008 / 23:00

How about a referendum?


James Edgar
December 5, 2008 / 23:21

several polls are showing quite a bit of support for the Perogie ( can't spell :( ) ..and my informal poll shows the same . Liberal voters are Pissed. Sorry mike I have much respect but you're out to lunch on this.


Mikey
December 5, 2008 / 23:51

I'd love to see those polls. Also, did I miss the part when polls became infallible?


Mikey
December 5, 2008 / 23:52

I get the feeling some of you won't be happy until we're Italy....


Horonymous
December 6, 2008 / 09:27

It's been proven three times out of five that 82 % of 67% of 2/5 of bushel of numbers are pulled out of thin air.


Toronto Mike
December 6, 2008 / 10:42

Guys, let me clarify my beef...

I'm not suggesting the majority of Canadians support the coalition or even that I support the coalition, I'm just disputing this poll/survey Fred's resting his case on.

And I stand by my assertion that the Conservatives haven't made any ground in Toronto. There has never been a Conservative MP in Toronto (note I wrote Conservative, not Progressive Conservative) and I don't think there'd be one if an election were held next week.


Max
December 6, 2008 / 11:04

Mikey, polls are always questionable when they don't support your view.

Hopefully the last comment on this from me, because I'm feeling a bit of Coalition hangover:

Most people understand the parliamentary system and the role the opposition should play in a minority government scenario like this one. The concept of a non-confidence vote is not what has people upset in this case. What has people upset is that the opposition began planning this from the moment the election ended, and pounced on the flimsiest circumstance. This is supported not only by Layton's own recorded statements, but by their refusal to backdown no matter what concessions have been offered.
This whole thing has been orchestrated by a man who has the support of 18% of voters, who knows he will never have a cabinet seat without this coalition, and who is using a weak, interim Liberal leader as his puppet.
Bottom line: legitimate non-confidence vote tabled by a reasonable alternative government is fine by most people. Pre-planned, baseless non-confidence vote tabled by a shaky coalition stinks like week-old fish.


Anonymous
December 6, 2008 / 12:42

Toronto Mike - you need to understand the damage done and potential damage by the Coalition of Dictators.

Toronto voters aren't stupid. They loathe Jack Layton and won't stand for any power sharing deal with their precious Liberal party. Both the Liberals and the NDP need to be chastened for what they've done - and that WILL happen in Ontario.. Bring on the election.


Mikey
December 6, 2008 / 12:46

The real bottom line is that this time Stephen Harper went too far in his contempt for and his burning desire to crush all opposition parties - pure partisan politics. But this time, the opposition has finally shown that they just might have some balls after all, and won't stand for Harper's tactics anymore. Do you really think to opposition would have put this much of a fight if the Conservatives economic statement was full of good ideas and devoid of power grabs? Of course not, that would have been horrible PR and damaged their reputations long term. Harper miscalculated on this one, and now he's paying the price. Please don't forget who the Prime Minister is, and who has ultimately "led" us into this.


Mikey
December 6, 2008 / 12:51

Toronto Mike - I agree, not only has Harper not made any further inroads into Ontario, he's taken a massive step backwards in Quebec. I think this has pretty much ruined any chances the Conservatives had of winning a majority with Harper as leader.


Max
December 6, 2008 / 13:15

Do you really think to opposition would have put this much of a fight if the Conservatives economic statement was full of good ideas and devoid of power grabs?

As a matter of fact I do. Granted, Harper gave them the opportunity, but my point is they were going to try this no matter what the excuse. It was an economic statement for crying out loud! It wasn't a budget being presented! It might have seemed credible if they had at least waited for a budget to be presented, and then made their case, but it's obvious they had the Conservatives in their gun sight since the election - unfortunately for them the gun had a hair-trigger. This over-eagerness is what reveals the coalition as making a power grab rather than being truly interested in the well being of the country.


Irvine
December 6, 2008 / 14:21

What seems to escape many of you is this. I think in the next 6 weeks, Dion will step away from the helm of this coalition. They'll put someone else in charge.

That's the one weakness of this coalition. They don't have anyone TO leader.

But this run up of the Harper support is just emotional. It's a "me versus him" thing (Dion versus Harper).

Say what you want about politicians..they are VERY keen on gaining power and honestly, my experience is they are very very nasty.


Mikey
December 6, 2008 / 15:41

Max - I just really don't see why the Liberals would make a bid to defeat the government when their leader is a lame duck. There's just no logic in that.

Of course the opposition had the Conservatives in their sights, just like the Conservatives had the Liberals in their sights in 2004 and 2006, and just like every opposition has had every governing party in their sights since 1867. But there's just no rational argument that could convince me that this was inevitable, Harper created it by not being able to find it within himself to put aside politics.

Which brings us to Irvine's point about Harper's support. It's not just emotional, Harper is worshiped by his base like no other politician I've ever seen. He can just do no wrong, and anyone who dares oppose him is a "dictator," "fruit," "clown," "power snatcher," "weasel," "selfish vultures," "career losers," and probably a few more I missed quickly scanning the posts and comments here. Harper is a human being, with faults, and once certain people accept that they can look at this situation objectively.


Max
December 6, 2008 / 18:10

Max - I just really don't see why the Liberals would make a bid to defeat the government when their leader is a lame duck. There's just no logic in that.

You're right - normally there would be no logic in that. Certainly not over an economic statement. But this time, Dion had oily little Layton sidle up to him and whisper in his ear about the sweet deal he had concocted with the Bloc. Jackie promised it was there for the taking as long as he got a plum role in the new cabinet. I'm sure it was a tantalizing proposition to Dion - he probably could imagine that once he was PM, he'd have the chance to prove everyone wrong and demonstrate what a great leader he could be.
When you consider all that, do you still not see that this coalition was rotten to the core from the get go?


Irvine
December 6, 2008 / 19:29

What seems to escape Fred is that this polarization of opinion will only strengthen the separatist movement. It's now well discussed how Harper referred to the Bloc as separatists in English but Sovereigns In French. Did he think they wouldn't notice? The French are the most politically astute people in Canada.

So congratulations Fred. Your boy not only pissed off half the country, he's stirred up the anger in Quebec again. Even Mulroney didn't things this well with Meech Lake.

I'm against the coalition myself, but I hope they force their hand and Harper is tossed out. He's ruining the Conservative Party. Good riddance ya effing punk.


Mikey
December 7, 2008 / 23:32

Dion may have loved the idea of being PM, but there's no way the rest of the Liberal caucus would have agreed to defeat the government for no reason. But once Harper proved he was unable to put aside politics to actually lead this country, something had to be done.


IanS
December 8, 2008 / 14:00

Hey Irvine, How astute can Quebec voters be if they elect a former conservative masquerading as a liberal provincially and then consistantly return the Bloc to the federal house?


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